The goals, minute by minute
- 55'Anthony GordonGoal · 1-0
- 85'Enzo FernándezGoal · 1-1
- 90'+2'Lautaro MartínezGoal · 1-2
The preview
Written before the match. We've left it as it was, even where the game said otherwise.
Context
England (1st Group L, 2-1 over Norway in extra time) vs Argentina (1st Group J, reigning champions, 3-1 over Switzerland in extra time) · semi-final in Atlanta
Team level
England: better and better. Solid at the back, an unstoppable Bellingham and Kane's instinct; Saka and Foden stretch the pitch.
Argentina: grit and pedigree (Messi, Julián Álvarez, Dibu Martínez). Won the last two in extra time: the minutes are piling up.
Key factors
- Midfield: Enzo and Mac Allister vs Bellingham and Rice decides the tie.
- Argentina's fatigue after two straight extra times, against England's deeper legs.
- If it goes to penalties, Dibu Martínez is a huge edge for Argentina.
Prediction
Result in 90': 1-1 (alternative: 2-1 Argentina)
- Argentina win: ~44%
- Draw: ~31%
- England win: ~25%
Advances: Argentina (~54%)
Player to watch: Lionel Messi, the ultimate difference-maker (beware Bellingham).
Final verdict, Confidence: medium
Argentina is a slight favourite for its pedigree, for Messi and for the Dibu factor if the
game stretches. England has the tools, Bellingham was made for this, and if it exploits the
Argentine fatigue, it can pull it off. A coin toss with a slight Argentine lean.