The goals, minute by minute
- 22'Mikel OyarzabalPenalty · 0-1
- 58'Pedro PorroGoal · 0-2
The preview
Written before the match. We've left it as it was, even where the game said otherwise.
Context
France (1st Group I, 2-0 over Morocco) vs Spain (1st Group H, 2-1 over Belgium) · semi-final in Dallas
Team level
France: raw power and pace (Mbappé, Dembélé); a solid back line and an elite midfield. Arriving fresh.
Spain: the best collective in the tournament (Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Nico Williams); possession, high pressing and goals from everywhere.
Key factors
- Spanish possession vs French transitions: the tie will be won in midfield.
- History matters: Spain beat France 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semi-final.
- Both arrive fresh (won inside 90'); the Dallas heat suits France's low-energy plan.
Prediction
Result in 90': 1-1 (alternative: 2-1 Spain)
- Spain win: ~46%
- Draw: ~30%
- France win: ~24%
Advances: Spain (~53%)
Player to watch: Lamine Yamal, the jewel of the tournament (beware Mbappé).
Final verdict, Confidence: medium
Spain is the narrowest of favourites for its collective play and that recent European
precedent. But one counter and a flash of Mbappé is all it takes to flip the story.
A coin toss with a slight Spanish lean.