The goals, minute by minute
- 28'John McGinnGoal · 0-1
The preview
Written before the match. We've left it as it was, even where the game said otherwise.
Head-to-Head
No history: this is the first-ever meeting between the two sides. It is also both nations' tournament opener and a symbolic occasion (Scotland return to the World Cup after 28 years; Haiti after 52).
Recent form
- Scotland: rising, 4 wins in 5, a dramatic qualification against Denmark and warm-up routs (4-1 vs Curaçao, 4-0 vs Bolivia). Some March stumbles (1-0 vs Japan and Ivory Coast).
- Haiti: inconsistent, a statement 4-0 over New Zealand, but before that 1-0 vs Tunisia, 1-1 vs Iceland and 2-1 vs Peru. Ranked 83rd, the second-lowest team at the World Cup.
Squad status
- Scotland: Gilmour (knee) out; McTominay and McKenna doubtful with minor knocks (McTominay set to play).
- Haiti: no new injuries after the loss to Peru.
Factor matrix
| Factor | Edge for |
|---|---|
| Head-to-head | Neutral |
| Recent form | Scotland |
| Squad status | Scotland |
| Motivation | Neutral |
| Ranking/pedigree | Scotland |
| Surprise/transitions | Haiti (slight) |
Prediction
Most likely result: Scotland 2 - 0 Haiti (alternative: 2-1)
- Scotland win: 58%
- Draw: 26%
- Haiti win: 16%
Player to watch: Scott McTominay (Scotland)
Final verdict
Scotland are clear favorites (-188 with bookmakers, 59% in the Opta supercomputer) on pedigree, form and squad depth. Haiti arrive with belief and a strong attacking friendly, but their inconsistency and lower individual level tip the balance toward a Scotland win by one or two goals. Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH.