The goals, minute by minute
- 90'+3'Enzo FernándezRed card
- 106'Ferran TorresGoal · 1-0
The preview
Written before the match. We've left it as it was, even where the game said otherwise.
Context
Spain (2-0 over France) vs Argentina (2-1 over England) · the final, at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey
Team level
Spain: unbeaten (6 wins and 1 draw), 13 goals scored and only 1 conceded. The best defence of the tournament and total control of the game; they have not played a single minute of extra time.
Argentina: also unbeaten, but the hard way. 19 goals scored and 7 conceded: the most potent attack of the World Cup, with a back line that suffers and two extra times in the legs.
Key factors
- Unstoppable force vs immovable object: the deadliest attack against the meanest defence.
- Fatigue matters: Argentina has played ~60 extra minutes; Spain won everything inside 90'.
- If it goes to penalties, the Dibu Martínez factor tilts it Argentina's way.
Prediction
Result in 90': 1-1 (alternative: 2-1 Spain)
- Spain win: ~44%
- Draw: ~30%
- Argentina win: ~26%
Champion: Spain (~54%)
Player to watch: Lamine Yamal, the jewel of the tournament, with Messi across the pitch on his last dance.
Final verdict, Confidence: medium
Taking the whole tournament into account, Spain arrives in better shape: the most consistent,
the most solid at the back and the freshest. But Argentina has what spreadsheets do not measure, Messi, Dibu and a knack for comebacks it has already shown twice. The tightest final imaginable.