Group stage · Group F · #10
Netherlands v Japan
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The goals, minute by minute
- 51'Virgil van DijkGoal · 1-0
- 57'Keito NakamuraGoal · 1-1
- 64'Crysencio SummervilleGoal · 2-1
- 89'Daichi KamadaGoal · 2-2
The preview
Written before the match. We've left it as it was, even where the game said otherwise.
Head-to-Head
3 meetings: Netherlands 2 - Japan 0 (1 draw). A 3-0 Dutch rout in the 2009 friendly; a 1-0 win at the 2010 World Cup (Sneijder goal, on the way to the final); and a 2-2 draw in the 2013 friendly. The Netherlands have never lost to Japan.
Recent form
- Netherlands: solid, topped Group G unbeaten in qualifying (6 wins and 2 draws, 27 goals, Memphis Depay with 8). A defense packed with Premier League players.
- Japan: on the rise, 3 wins in their last 5 and 6 straight wins in warm-ups, including victories over Brazil (3-2) and England. Eighth consecutive World Cup, ranked 18th.
Squad status
- Netherlands: big blow with Xavi Simons out (ACL rupture). Timber replaced by Geertruida. Van Dijk, Gakpo and Gravenberch in fine form.
- Japan: captain Wataru Endo withdrew injured; Shuto Machino comes in and Ko Itakura takes the armband.
Factor matrix
| Factor | Edge for |
|---|---|
| Head-to-head | Netherlands |
| Recent form | Neutral |
| Squad status | Netherlands |
| Motivation | Neutral |
| Pedigree/ranking | Netherlands |
| Intensity/collective | Japan |
Prediction
Most likely result: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan (alternative: 2-1 Netherlands)
- Netherlands win: 49%
- Draw: 25%
- Japan win: 26%
Player to watch: Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) · Japan rely on their block and quick transitions.
Final verdict
The Netherlands are favorites on pedigree, squad depth and history (49.2% in the Opta supercomputer). But Japan arrive on a remarkable run with prestige wins (Brazil, England) that make them a dangerous opponent, capable of stealing points in the opener. The most likely outcome is a close game with a slight Dutch edge. Confidence: MEDIUM.