The goals, minute by minute
No goals and no red cards.
The preview
Written before the match. We've left it as it was, even where the game said otherwise.
Group K
Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan.
Colombia's matches:
- Jun 17 vs Uzbekistan (Guadalajara, MEX)
- Jun 23 vs DR Congo (Mexico City, MEX)
- Jun 27 vs Portugal (Miami, USA) ← key match for 1st place
Level of the teams
- Portugal: 5th in the FIFA ranking, 2025 Nations League champion, top squad (Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes). Favorite.
- Colombia: in great form under Lorenzo, elite attack (James, Luis Díaz, Durán). Clearly the group's 2nd force.
- DR Congo and Uzbekistan: outsiders, aiming for 3rd place.
Key factors
- Opta supercomputer: Portugal 59% to win the group.
- Bookmakers: Portugal 1st (-185, ~65%), Colombia 2nd.
- Colombia 84.9% to advance, but as 2nd in most simulations.
- Everything is decided on June 27: Colombia would need to beat Portugal (or rely on goal difference) to finish 1st.
Prediction
Most likely outcome: Colombia FINISHES 2nd in the group
- Colombia 1st: ~30-35%
- Colombia 2nd: ~50-55% ← most likely scenario
- Fails to advance: ~15%
Player to watch: Luis Díaz, can break things open even against Portugal.
Final verdict, Confidence: medium-high
The consensus of data and betting points to Portugal 1st and Colombia 2nd. Colombia is clearly superior to Congo and Uzbekistan, so advancing is very likely, but overtaking Portugal for 1st is the minority of cases.